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The probability of an overall win in blackjack is 42.22%, a tie is 8.48%, and a loss is 49.10%.
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The probability of an overall win in blackjack is 42.22%, a tie is 8.48%, and a loss is 49.10%. The odds of hitting a particular card other than a 10-value card are 7.7%, and 31% for 10-value cards. As a player you can expect to hit a Blackjack once every 21 hands on average. When the dealer is showing an Ace upcard, there is a 31% chance that the dealer has Blackjack. You can expect to win at least 48% of the hands you play. Single-deck sees a higher win rate in hands 9, 10 and 11 because both the frequency and advantage is higher in single-deck. Sim details Six decks, S17, DAS, LS, Heads-Up, Basic Strategy, 75% Penetration. According to Schlesinger's results, the player he modeled with a 12-to-1 bet spread has a win-rate of $19.42 per 100 hands (see highlighted yellow box). In other words, Schlesinger's real-world model achieves 57.8% of the win-rate of the world's greatest card counter. The average counter is giving up $14.16 per 100 hands in potential profit.
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